State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Governor Jameel Ahmad said on Monday that the country's foreign exchange reserves would exceed $14 billion by June this year, but warned of spike in inflation, reported 24NewsHD TV channel.
Speaking at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) in Karachi to begin observing financial literacy week in the country, the SBP governor said similarly remittances would reach $4 billion to $5 billion by June.
He disclosed that Pakistan received a record-high $4.1 billion in workers’ remittances in March 2025, saying the State Bank has revised its projection for the cumulative receipt of the remittances to $38 billion for the full year of FY25 from the previous estimate of $36 billion.
Given the strong level of remittances, Jameel Ahmad was optimistic that the current account would remain in surplus throughout this fiscal year. “There will be a substantial surplus, and this is the best performance on the external account during the last two decades.”
He said he could not forget the situation the country was confronted with back in 2022 when inflation was on the rise and the current account deficit had touched $17.5 billion.
The SBP governor said that the inflation rate in March 2025 had been at its lowest in the last six decades. “However, it would rise from this month,” he cautioned.
Jameel Ahmad further said that the country’s economic growth rate was expected to reach 3 percent this financial year (FY) 2024-25. “If the agricultural production had remained at eight percent just like it was last year, the growth rate could have touched the 4.2 percent mark,” he opined.
Jameel Ahmad went on to say that monthly imports during the ongoing FY had reached $5.7 billion.
He informed that the current account was expected to remain in surplus.
The SBP governor also revised up projection for foreign exchange reserves (held by SBP) to $14 billion by the end of June 2025. Earlier, the bank had estimated foreign exchange reserves at $13 billion by the end of June.
Jameel Ahmad anticipated the growth in the reserves despite a drop of $2 billion in forex reserves over the past couple of months due to debt repayments to $10.6 billion at present.
The SBP governor projected that Pakistan would receive $4-5 billion from external resources by end of June. The receipts would be including from global financial institutions. He said Pakistan’s economic activities have improved with imports going up to $5.7 billion a month. “So those who are thinking that there are restrictions on imports or economic activity is not picking up, I think they should look at the data,” he said.
Jameel Ahmad projected economic growth at 3% for FY25. “It would have grown to 4.2% in the year if agricultural output had remained robust at the previous year’s level of 8%,” he added.
The governor, however, said inflation reading would start increasing from the current month following a six-decade low of 0.7% achieved in March 2025.