Two defeats, both coming on the final ball of matches against India and Zimbabwe, have left Pakistan needing something special to make it to the semi-finals.
After two rounds of matches, the qualification stakes in Group 2 are beginning to take shape, with India in pole position and Pakistan in a heap of trouble. It is now unlikely that Pakistan will reach the final four, but not mathematically impossible.
India are top of the group with a maximum four points from their opening two games and are in a prime position to qualify for the semi-finals. A Net Run Rate of +1.425 is a strong start too, and it will take some turnaround for Rohit Sharma’s side to be prevented from a top-two spot.
The remaining spot may involve a lot of calculations.
The rain-interrupted no result between South Africa and Zimbabwe has both teams just a point behind India with three games to play, and that could make all the difference come the final standings.
Zimbabwe’s stunning win over Pakistan has given them a chance, but they will likely still need to win at least two and maybe all three of their remaining fixtures.
South Africa have the edge over Zimbabwe thanks to a phenomenal Net RR of +5.200, created by the crushing 104-run win over Bangladesh on Thursday. That in itself is effectively worth an extra point at this stage.
It is out of Pakistan’s hands however. If any two of India, Zimbabwe or South Africa win two of their remaining three matches then they will finish with more than six points – the maximum that Pakistan can reach.
Net RR could yet be a factor, so a big margin of victory in at least one of the remaining games wouldn’t hurt either.
Firstly, Pakistan need to win all their remaining three matches.
Secondly, the men in green must win all three matches by a big margin to maintain a healthy net run rate.
Thirdly, they must hope that other results go their way- including South Africa losing to India and Pakistan.
Zimbabwe losing their remaining two matches out of three (versus India, Netherlands, and Bangladesh)
Further, they must hope that Bangladesh lose another game.
And these all results can go in way of Pakistan If India remain unbeaten in the group and Bangladesh beat Zimbabwe.
Pakistan's three 'must-win' fixtures
Sunday 30 October: Netherlands v Pakistan, Perth Stadium
Pakistan will need to win and win big against the Netherlands to set the tone for their chase of a semi-final spot. The other match results on Sunday 30 October could also be vital, with Bangladesh playing Zimbabwe earlier in Brisbane, before India and South Africa follow Pakistan’s game in Perth. It has been 13 years since the last and only T20I between Pakistan and Netherlands, a match that the Asian side won with ease.
Thursday 03 November: Pakistan v South Africa, SCG, Sydney
Potentially the decisive game in Pakistan’s unlikely revival sees the SCG host a massive Group 2 fixture. South Africa are ranked third in the world at the time of writing, and possess a fiery bowling attack and powerful batting unit. But Pakistan’s record against the Proteas in recent times is good, with six wins in the last eight T20I meetings.
Sunday 06 November: Pakistan v Bangladesh, Adelaide Oval
If Pakistan are still alive on the final matchday then they will fancy their chances against Bangladesh. The recent T20I record in this fixture is heavily in Pakistan’s favour, with eight straight wins (and one abandoned game) since the Tigers last won in March 2016.