Feb 8 general election results match with Gallup survey

The predictions that had been made in the Gallup’s survey report, published on January 10, 2024, for the February 8 general elections have proved almost true, reported 24NewsHD TV channel on Thursday.

In its survey, Gallup, an American multinational analytics and advisory company, had predicted that independent candidates in Punjab would secure 34 per cent seats, followed by the PML-N and PPP candidates with 32 per cent and six per cent seats, respectively.

And when after the elections on February 12, the company published its second report, it was found out that there was almost no difference between what had been predicted and the results of elections.

As had been projected in the survey, the seats won by independent candidates rose from one per cent to 35 per cent and that by PML-N candidates, from one per cent to 33 per cent.

Similarly, Gallup had predicted that in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), independent candidates would secure 45 per cent seats, followed by Jamaat-e-Islami, PML-N, and Awami Muslim League Party candidates 15 per cent, nine per cent and seven per cent seats.   

When these projections were matched with the election results, it was found out that winning percentage of the independent candidates in the province dropped just by one per cent and came down from 45 to 44 per cent.

Similarly, as had been predicted in the Gallup report, the PML-N candidates won nine per cent seats; PPP candidates six per cent seats while Awami Muslim League Party candidates seven per cent seats.

Likewise, it had been projected in the survey that the PPP candidates from Sindh would grab 44 per cent seats in the elections.  

And the election results showed that a right prediction had been made.

The report had said that the popularity of independent candidates in Punjab in March 2023 was 45 per cent, which came down to 34 per cent later in December.  

Similarly, PML-N’s popularity in the same month was 24 per cent which rose to 32 per cent in December.

As per the report, in March 2023, the popularity of PPP in Sindh was 42 per cent while that of independent candidates 19 per cent and that of PML-N candidates just four per cent.

Reporter: Ahmad Mansoor