FAFEN report shows voter turnout drop in 2024 elections

As many as 60.6 million voters exercised their right to vote in Pakistan’s 12th general elections on February 8, 2024, said a report by Free and Fair Election Network (FAFEN) based on the analysis of Form 47 of 264 National Assembly constituencies acquired from the official website of the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP).

According to the FAFEN report, nearly 5.8 million more people voted in GE-2024 as compared to 2018 when 54.8 million had cast their votes. Despite the increase in the absolute number of voters, the turnout dipped from 52.1 percent in 2018 to 47.6 percent in 2024, primarily due to an increase in the number of registered voters from 106 million in 2018 to 128.6 million in 2024 following a record addition of 22.6 million between the two elections.

In addition, the harsh winter in parts of the country, fears of violence and terrorism in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan as well as an uncertainty about the conduct of elections may have also adversely affected the turnout.

The gender analysis of voter turnout, however, needs further refinement as Form 47 from 10 National Assembly constituencies and as many Provincial Assemblies constituencies did not include the gender disaggregation of votes polled.

The regional disaggregation of voter turnout for National Assembly constituencies shows a varied pattern with the lowest turnout in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the highest in Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT).

The turnout in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa declined from 44 percent in 2018 to 39.5 percent in 2024, in ICT from 58.3 percent to 54.2 percent, in Punjab from 56.8 percent to 51.6 percent, in Sindh from 47.2 percent to 43.7 percent and in Balochistan from 45.3 percent to 42.9 percent.

While overall turnout declined by 4.5 percentage points, the highest decline was in Punjab where turnout dropped by 5.2 percentage points, followed by Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (4.5), ICT (4.1), Sindh (3.5) and Balochistan (2.4).

2.3 million more women cast vote in 2024

The gender-disaggregated statistics of polled votes indicate a male voter turnout of 51.6 percent and a female voter turnout of 42.6 percent. According to the available data, as many as 24.05 women cast their votes in 254 NA constituencies as compared to 34.02 men in the same constituencies.

Interestingly, increase in the number of women turning out to vote in 2024 as compared to 2018 is greater than the increase in the number of men who cast their votes in 2024 as compared to the previous general election. As many 2.3 million more women turned out to vote in 2024 as compared to 2018 when 21.7 million women had cast their votes. On the other hand, as many 1.09 million more men turned out to vote in 2024 as compared to 2018 when 32.9 million men had cast their votes. The number of votes polled by men and women will slightly increase when the ECP makes available the gender disaggregated data of the 10 National Assembly constituencies where the Returning Officers did not separately record the votes polled by men and women.

Turout decline in all major cities

The decline in turnout as compared to 2018 was a ubiquitous phenomenon across major cities including the provincial capitals Lahore, Quetta, Peshawar and Karachi. Although the cumulative turnout of all 22 Karachi constituencies saw a declining trend, three Karachi districts namely Korangi, Karachi West (including newly carved out district Kemari) and Karachi Central registered a slight increase in the turnout while Malir, Karachi South and Karachi East recorded a decline.

Highest and lowest turnout

Among 264 constituencies, the highest turnout was 70.9 percent recorded in NA-214 Tharparkar-I while the lowest was 16.3 percent in NA-42 South Waziristan Upper-cum-South Waziristan Lower.

Nearly 97% constituencies of Punjab, 70 percent of Sindh, 56 percent of Balochistan and 41 percent of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa have an above 40 percent turnout.

Overall, 13 constituencies had a turnout above 60 percent including nine constituencies in Punjab, two in Sindh and one in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and ICT each.

As many as 103 constituencies had a turnout between 50.1 percent and 60 percent including 87 in Punjab, eight in Sindh, four in Balochistan, three in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and one in ICT.

As many as 93 constituencies had a turnout between 40.1 percent and 50 percent with 40 such constituencies in Punjab, 33 in Sindh, 14 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, five in Balochistan and one in ICT. As many as 45 constituencies had a turnout between 30.1 percent and 40 percent including 21 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, 16 in Sindh, four in Balochistan and four in Punjab.

The remaining 10 constituencies had a turnout below 30 percent and included five in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, three in Balochistan and two in Sindh.