Japan PM set to form minority government

Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba faces a parliament vote on Monday that is expected to keep him in the job, but with a fragile grip on power after a disastrous general election.

Ishiba, 67, took office in early October and called a snap election which he hoped would shore up his mandate as leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).

Instead, voters unhappy with inflation and a slush fund scandal that helped sink his predecessor Fumio Kishida delivered the party its worst result since 2009, which could cause political gridlock in a hung parliament.

While the conservative LDP and its junior coalition party lost their majority in the general election, they remain the largest bloc in parliament's powerful lower house.

With Japan's opposition parties deeply divided on many key issues, Ishiba is expected to lead a minority government from Monday when lawmakers convene for a special four-day session to nominate the prime minister.

To have enough sway to pass legislation going forward, the ruling bloc has asked for help from the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) -- a small centrist group that has agreed to cooperate on a vote-by-vote basis while staying out of the coalition.

In talks with the LDP, the DPP has demanded tax cuts and energy subsidies that economists say would significantly reduce the government's tax revenues.

In a twist, DPP head Yuichiro Tamaki on Monday admitted to an extra-marital affair reported by a tabloid and said he would discuss his leadership position with his colleagues.

"I apologise for causing such a disturbance," he told reporters, adding that the party would discuss its voting plan ahead of the parliament assembly on Monday afternoon.

- Tough road ahead -

"In order to stay in power, Ishiba needs to pass the government budget this winter. It will mean the LDP will have to concede some of its policies to seek cooperation from others," Tomoaki Iwai, professor emeritus at Nihon University, told AFP.

On the diplomatic front, Donald Trump's US election victory could complicate matters for former defence minister Ishiba.

Risks include potential new trade tariffs and demands for more defence spending by Tokyo which has relied on the United States for military hardware for decades.

Along with these delicate negotiations, Ishiba must also contend with bitter discontent within his party, which lost dozens of seats -- including ministers -- in the October 27 election.

"Unless he improves his public support, those inside the LDP may start saying they cannot fight the upper house election under Ishiba" and look for another leader, Iwai added. The public votes in the upper house election in July.

Approval ratings for Ishiba's government are just above 30 percent, but polls show a majority of the public say he should remain prime minister.

Ishiba faces a tough road ahead with both Washington and domestic lawmakers seen likely to press him for higher public spending and tax cuts at the same time, analysts said.

Experts have voiced worries that Trump, without consulting Asian allies, may make deals with China.

Possible fresh US tariffs on Chinese and Japanese goods may fuel inflation, while the Trump administration may demand Japan to expand its defence spending or push Japanese firms to expand their factories in the US.

That should pressure Ishiba to expand the government's spending, while opposition lawmakers tell him to cut taxes, Hideo Kumano, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute, wrote in a note.

"It must be Mr. Ishiba who is feeling the toughest headache of Mr. Trump's victory," Kumano wrote.

Record number of women MPs still minority

New lawmaker Saria Hino takes her seat on Monday as one of a record number of women in Japan's parliament, but while campaigning ahead of the recent election, a voter asked her: "Who's looking after your children?"

The mother-of-four was among 73 women elected to the 465-seat house of representatives in October's vote -- the most ever, but still a small minority at 16 percent.

Having won in central Japan's Aichi region, the 36-year-old is on a mission to "deliver a message from the front lines" of those raising children or caring for the elderly.

"The responsibility for children's growth should not lie solely on their parents' shoulders," said Hino, who was elected to the opposition Democratic Party for the People.

"I want to develop policies based on the overwhelming amount of information I have -- personally -- of what's going on" at preschools and nursing homes, she told AFP.

Japan has the world's second-oldest population after Monaco and its birth rate has been stubbornly low for decades.

There are a range of factors why women are choosing to have fewer children, including rising living costs and expecations that working mothers should still shoulder the domestic burden, child raising and caring for relatives.

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, expected to lead a minority government after a parliament vote on Monday, has called the dearth of new babies a "quiet emergency" and has pledged to promote measures such as flexible working hours.

His predecessor Fumio Kishida also sounded the alarm on the looming demographic crisis, expanding parental leave policies and financial aid for families.

While the number of preschools is rising in Japan, workforce shortages mean difficult working conditions for nursery teachers, Hino said.

"Similarly, a recent government decision to lower funding for elderly care facilities is worsening caregivers' already tough work environments" she said, warning that they risk closure.

- Sexist jibes -

Women leaders are rare in politics but also in business in Japan, which ranked 118th of 146 in the 2024 World Economic Forum's Global Gender Gap report.

Veteran female lawmakers, such as former ministers Seiko Noda and Seiko Hashimoto, have highlighted the difficulties of being a mother and an MP in a parliament where debates often run on until nearly midnight.

Women made up just a quarter of candidates in the election and can still openly face sexist jibes.

Former deputy prime minister Taro Aso this year called then-foreign minister Yoko Kamikawa a "rising star" but also described her as an "aunty" who was "not that beautiful".

And one in four female electoral candidates said they faced sexual harassment during their campaigns, according to a 2021 cabinet office survey reported by local media.

- Lack of diversity -

Sachiko Inokuchi, a 68-year-old doctor elected in a Tokyo district, said her opposition Japan Innovation Party has set up a babysitting service for lawmakers to help improve the gender imbalance.

She wants to strengthen support for mothers in Japan, as "I don't want to pass on the unwanted effects of a rapidly ageing society with fewer children".

Ishiba's conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior coalition party lost their majority for the first time since 2009 in the October 27 election.

One LDP lawmaker who won a seat was Jun Mukoyama, who faced the same question on the campaign trail over who was looking after her child -- "a question a male candidate wouldn't be asked," the 40-year-old told AFP.

She spent 13 years at a trading house but quit in her early 30s when she moved to the United States for her husband's work, while the couple was having fertility treatment.

"At that time, I thought, 'if I can never have a child, I want to make a society that is great for children'," and decided to become a politician, she said.

She was attracted to the LDP's "pragmatic security policy and proven capability of running the government".

But she felt the party "lacked diversity" in its policy-making, something she wanted to help change.

Mukoyama said her priority as a lawmaker was revitalising Japan's depressed, depopulated rural communities.

But, like Hino and Inokuchi, she also wants to ensure the voices of people "facing the difficulties of juggling work and family" are heard.