Trump looms over Saudi-hosted meeting on Mideast wars

Arab and Muslim leaders gather in Saudi Arabia Monday for a summit addressing the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, a chance to send a message to US President-elect Donald Trump.

The Saudi foreign ministry announced plans for the summit in late October during a meeting, also in Riyadh, of a new "international alliance" to press for the establishment of a Palestinian state.

It comes one year after a similar gathering in Riyadh of the Cairo-based Arab League and the Jeddah-based Organisation of Islamic Cooperation during which leaders condemned Israeli forces' actions in Gaza as "barbaric".

This time around, Trump's election last week for a second term in the White House is likely to be on leaders' minds, said Anna Jacobs, senior Gulf analyst for the International Crisis Group think tank.

"This summit is very much an opportunity for regional leaders to signal to the incoming Trump administration what they want in terms of US engagement," she said.

"The message will likely be one of dialogue, de-escalation and calling out Israeli military campaigns in the region."

The war in Gaza erupted with Hamas's unprecedented attack on southern Israel on October 7 last year, which resulted in 1,206 deaths, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally of Israeli official figures.

Israel's retaliatory campaign has killed more than 43,600 people in Gaza, most of them civilians, according to data from the Hamas-run territory's health ministry that the United Nations considers reliable.

Lebanon-based Hezbollah, which like Hamas is backed by Iran, began firing on Israel after the October 7 attack. The regular cross-border exchanges escalated in late September when Israel intensified its air strikes and sent ground troops into southern Lebanon.

Despite criticism of the impact Israel's military campaign has had on Gaza civilians, outgoing US President Joe Biden ensured that Washington remained Israel's most important military backer during more than a year of fighting.

- 'Rely on the Saudis' -

In his first term, Trump's actions showed him as an even firmer supporter of Israel. He defied international consensus by recognising Jerusalem as Israel's capital and moving Washington's embassy there.

He also endorsed Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, which are illegal under international law.

Under the Abraham Accords, Trump oversaw the establishment of diplomatic relations between Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, as well as Morocco.

Though Saudi Arabia did not join those agreements, Trump cultivated warm ties with the Gulf kingdom while in office and has deepened his business connections to the region during the Biden years.

Saudi Arabia has pressed pause on a US-brokered deal where it would recognise Israel in return for security and economic benefits, insisting there will be no diplomatic ties without a Palestinian state.

Umer Karim, an expert on Saudi politics at the University of Birmingham, said Riyadh will use Monday's summit to signal to the incoming Trump team that it remains a strong partner.

The message is that Trump "can rely on the Saudis as being representatives of the Muslim world", and that "if you want to extend American interests in the region, Saudi Arabia is your bet", he said.

The 57-member OIC and 22-member Arab League include countries which recognise Israel and those firmly opposed to its regional integration.

Last year's summit in Riyadh saw disagreement on measures like severing economic and diplomatic ties with Israel and disrupting its oil supplies.

Karim said the post-summit statement on Monday will likely "strongly condemn Israel... while also pushing for greater American leverage and diplomacy on the issue."

The November 2023 meeting featured an appearance by Iran's then-president Ebrahim Raisi, highlighting how regional diplomacy has changed since Trump was last in office.

In March 2023, Iran and Saudi Arabia announced a China-brokered rapprochement after seven years of severed ties. The Middle East heavyweights have maintained regular high-level contact as part of efforts to contain the ongoing conflicts.

Iranian state media said the chief of staff of the Saudi armed forces was to arrive in Tehran Sunday for talks, a rare high-level visit.

Misinformation fears mount over second Trump term

Donald Trump's election victory paves the way for a fresh wave of misinformation, not only around politics but also on vaccines and climate, with his expected cabinet picks ready to challenge the scientific community.

In the closing weeks of his 2024 campaign, Trump aired false claims about weather manipulation and government assistance after hurricanes hit North Carolina, a swing state he would ultimately win.

With fewer checks from social media platforms and the struggling traditional media, he also complained -- without evidence -- about voter fraud, the 2020 election, the Covid-19 pandemic, vaccine harms and more.

These claims ricocheted across the internet through a network of social media influencers, who in many cases have become news sources for the public as media become increasingly fragmented.

"The problem of misinformation and disinformation is the worst it's ever been," said Bill Adair, a Duke University professor who founded the fact-checking site PolitiFact and authored the 2024 book "Beyond the Big Lie."

The tactics designed to contain and correct misinformation, such as fact-checking and social media moderation, "are clearly not working," Adair added.

He predicted few changes ahead from platforms that have largely exempted elected officials from fact-checking "because they don't want to make the politicians mad."

Even as the 2024 campaign was under way, polls found roughly one-third of Americans believed the 2020 election was stolen by Joe Biden.

Misinformation researchers at NewsGuard found 963 websites and 793 social media accounts that have repeatedly published false election information, and 1,283 partisan websites masquerading as neutral news organizations during the campaign.

"The right has invested, since 2016, in building participatory, activist, factional social media networks that are directly tied into its 'small batch' propaganda media ecosystem," said Renee DiResta, a misinformation researcher, in a Threads post.

"Things move from one sphere to the next: rumors are picked up by the propaganda machine if useful. Memes shape the messaging.

"The influencers boost each other."

Ethan Porter, a researcher and professor at George Washington University, said that while misinformation efforts may not have been decisive in his victory, "Trump was almost certainly helped by Twitter/X's apparent refusal to contain or mitigate pro-Trump misinformation."

- Science and health -

The upcoming four more years for Trump have raised concerns of legitimizing misinformation about vaccines, climate change and other health issues given his alliance with Robert F. Kennedy Jr., whose nonprofit has been a major promoter of false conspiracy theories on Covid-19.

"How are people not alarmed by Trump wanting RFK Jr, a person who has no formal education in health care, in charge of health… this man has promoted anti-vaccine misinformation and public-health conspiracy theories for years," Alma Hernandez, a Democratic member of the Arizona House of Representatives, said on X.

The Union of Concerned Scientists said the first Trump administration made 1,400 changes to agency websites that removed science-based information on environmental issues such as water pollution, climate change, and endangered species.

"President-elect Trump's path to the White House has been an unprecedented campaign of disinformation, threats, divisive language, and dangerous policy promises. It's understandable to look ahead to the next four years with serious worry," acting president Kim Waddell said in a statement.

- Muzzling the media -

Trump's attacks on the media have also raised alarm bells about coverage of his administration.

Journalist and author Kyle Paoletta wrote that he fears "Trump's assault on the press will become a fusillade of discreet attempts to quash whatever reporting he views as antagonistic" and questions whether reporters will maintain access or face harassment.

In a similar way, social media has retreated in content moderation as misinformation researchers face threats and attacks from conservative lawmakers.

Since taking over Twitter, now known as X, Elon Musk –- who may join Trump's cabinet –- has amplified rather than curbed misinformation.

Matt Gertz of the left-leaning watchdog Media Matters said Trump won over voters thanks in part to "a right-wing media complex that bombards them with falsehoods and grievances while dissuading them from consulting any alternative sources of information, be they legacy news outlets or government officials or medical experts."

Daniel Kreiss, a professor and researcher at the University of North Carolina Center for Information, Technology and Public Life, said the failure of fact-checking and traditional reporting to stem the spread of misinformation could be "devastating."

"What we're going to see are concerted campaigns to undermine democratic institutions and democratic norms," Kreiss said.