Economic activity stabilized in Pakistan but still lot to be done: IMF

The IMF's executive board approved an immediate disbursement of around $700 million for Pakistan Thursday as part of a programme to support the cash-strapped South Asian country through an economic crisis with a bittersweet warning on the country’s economic health.

The funds were unlocked after the International Monetary Fund board approved the first review of a nine-month, $3 billion loan agreement reached in July 2023 to help Pakistan weather a balance-of-payments crisis and service crippling external debt.

Thursday's disbursement brings the total released under the agreement to around $1.9 billion, the Fund confirmed in a statement.

Pakistan's advancement under the programme "has supported significant progress in stabilizing the economy following significant shocks," IMF Deputy Managing Director Antoinette Sayeh said, according to the statement.

"There are now tentative signs of activity picking-up and external pressures easing," she said, adding that "continued strong ownership remains critical to ensure the current momentum continues and stabilization of Pakistan's economy becomes entrenched."

The IMF said that macroeconomic conditions in Pakistan had "generally improved" since the programme was implemented, and predicted economic growth of two percent this year.

The fiscal position has been strengthened, with foreign reserves increasing and a "broadly stable" exchange rate, it added.

Despite the progress cited by the IMF, consumer inflation in Pakistan remains elevated, rising by 29.7 percent in the year to December, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.

In its statement, the IMF said inflation could decline to an annual rate of 18.5 percent by the middle of this year, so long as policy was "appropriately tight."

Text of IMF statement

The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the first review of Pakistan’s economic reform programme supported by the IMF’s Stand-By Arrangement (SBA). The Board’s decision allows for an immediate disbursement of SDR 528 million (around $700 million), bringing total disbursements under the arrangement to SDR 1.422 billion (about $1.9 billion).

Pakistan’s 9-month SBA was approved by the Executive Board on July 12, 2023, in the amount of SDR 2.250 billion (about $3 billion at the time of approval), aims to provide a policy anchor for addressing domestic and external balances and a framework for financial support from multilateral and bilateral partners. The program is focused on (1) implementation of the FY24 budget to facilitate Pakistan’s needed fiscal adjustment and ensure debt sustainability, while protecting critical social spending; (2) a return to a market-determined exchange rate and proper FX market functioning to absorb external shocks and eliminate FX shortages; (3) an appropriately tight monetary policy aimed at disinflation; and (4) further progress on structural reforms, particularly with regard to energy sector viability, SOE governance, and climate resilience.

Macroeconomic conditions have generally improved, with growth of 2 percent expected in FY24 as the nascent recovery expands in the second half of the year. The fiscal position also strengthened in FY24Q1 achieving a primary surplus of 0.4 percent of GDP driven by overall strong revenues. Inflation remains elevated, although with appropriately tight policy, this could decline to 18.5 percent by end-June 2024. Gross reserves increased to $8.2 billion in December 2023, up from $4.5 billion in June, while the exchange rate has been broadly stable. The current account deficit is expected to rise to around 1½ percent of GDP in FY24 as the recovery takes hold. Assuming sustained sound macroeconomic policy and structural reform implementation, inflation should return to the SBP target and growth continue to strengthen over the medium term.

Following the Executive Board discussion, Antoinette Sayeh, Deputy Managing Director and Chair, made the following statement:

“Pakistan’s program performance under the Stand-By Arrangement has supported significant progress in stabilizing the economy following significant shocks in FY2022-23. There are now tentative signs of activity picking-up and external pressures easing. Continued strong ownership remains critical to ensure the current momentum continues and stabilization of Pakistan’s economy becomes entrenched.

“The authorities’ strong revenue performance in FY24Q1 as well as federal spending restraint have helped to achieve a primary surplus in line with quarterly program targets. However, in the context of pressures, including from provincial spending, efforts at mobilizing revenues and ongoing non-priority spending discipline need to continue to ensure that the budgeted primary surplus and debt goals remain achievable. Going forward, broad-based reforms to improve the fiscal framework—mobilizing additional revenues particularly from non-filers and under-taxed sectors and improving public financial management—are required to create fiscal space for further social and development spending.

“The authorities took challenging steps to bring both electricity and natural gas prices closer to costs in 2023. Continuing with regularly-scheduled adjustments and pushing cost-side power sector reforms are vital to improving the sector’s viability and protecting fiscal sustainability.

“Inflation remains high, affecting particularly the more vulnerable, and it is appropriate that the SBP maintains a tight stance to ensure that inflation returns to more moderate levels. Pakistan also needs a market-determined exchange rate to buffer external shocks, continue rebuilding foreign reserves, and support competitiveness and growth. In parallel, further action to address undercapitalized financial institutions and, more broadly, vigilance over the financial sector is necessary to support financial stability.

“Boosting jobs and inclusive growth in Pakistan requires continuing protection of the vulnerable through BISP and accelerating structural reforms, most notably around improving the business environment and leveling the playing field for investors, advancing the SOE reform agenda and safeguards related to the Sovereign Wealth Fund; strengthening governance and anti-corruption institutions; and building climate resilience.”

With input from AFP.