Pakistan downgraded to ‘authoritarian regime’ on world democracy index

Democratic standards across the world fell in 2023 amid the spread of wars, authoritarian crackdowns and declining levels of trust in mainstream political parties, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) said on Thursday.

While Greece became a "full democracy", Pakistan was downgraded to an "authoritarian regime" on the world democracy index. The United States remains a "flawed democracy".

Joan Hoey, Editor of EIU’s Democracy Index Report said three years after the Covid-19 pandemic, which led to a rollback of freedoms around the globe, the results for 2023 point to a continuing democratic malaise and lack of forward momentum. Only 32 countries improved their index score in 2023, while 68 countries registered a decline. The scores for 67 countries stayed the same, painting a global picture of stagnation and regression. Most of the regression globally occurred among non-democracies, as “authoritarian regimes” became more entrenched and countries classified as “hybrid regimes” struggled to democratise.

General elections held on February 8 delivered a fractured mandate in Pakistan, with none of the key parties securing a majority that would enable them to form a government. Candidates backed by the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf of former prime minister Imran Khan won the largest number of seats in the lower house, attesting to his popularity.

EIU nonetheless believes there is a significant probability that the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) and the Pakistan People's Party will form a coalition government (with military support) in the next few days. The elections were marked by vote-rigging, and political stability and security will remain tenuous in Pakistan. Intensifying domestic protests will be curbed swiftly by the authorities.

Real GDP growth will be modest in fiscal year 2023/24 (July-June). Pakistan secured a nine-month loan package from the IMF in June 2023, which will help the country to stave off a default on sovereign debt obligations amid persistent balance-of-payments and fiscal strains. The EIU expects the new government to secure another IMF package after March 2024. China will remain a major strategic and financial ally of Pakistan, while relations with India will continue to be strained.

Global democracy score falls

While the number of countries categorised as democracies increased by two last year, the global average index score fell to 5.23 in 2023 from 5.29 the year before, its lowest level since the first study was published in 2006.

"The world has entered an age of conflict, and the contours of a future major war are already visible," said the study titled "Age of Conflict."

"Today's wars are concentrated in countries where democracy is absent or in trouble."

Western Europe was the only region to improve its score, moving ahead of North America. The EIU study said it was the first time that North America has not placed as the world's highest-scoring region.

Joan Hoey, the editor of the report, said scores fell for "not only those nations prosecuting wars (Azerbaijan and Russia), but for those on the receiving end (Armenia and Ukraine)."

"However, growing democratic resilience and consolidation in EU member states in Central Europe, as well as in Balkan and Baltic countries, ensured that the overall regional score did not significantly fall," Hoey added.

"The narrative of democracy in Eastern Europe and Central Asia can be best summed up as a tale of resilience."

The London-based analysis group pointed to intensifying anti-immigration sentiment in many countries, saying the political landscape in the Americas and Europe has become increasingly polarised.

"Three years after the covid-19 pandemic, which led to a rollback of freedoms around the globe, the results for 2023 point to a continuing democratic malaise and lack of forward momentum."

"More countries are experiencing declining levels of trust in mainstream political parties and leaders, and succumbing to 'culture wars' of the sort that have long characterised the US," the study said.

"Western Europe is plagued by low levels of trust in government."

The 27-nation EU holds elections for its European Parliament later this year and polls suggest the far-right could rise to become the third-biggest grouping in the legislature.

The report said that Ukraine's battle to repel Russia's two-year invasion was taking a toll on its democratic institutions and practices, while Russia continued its steady slide towards "outright dictatorship".

Only 7.8 percent of the global population reside in a "full democracy", and substantially more than one-third live under authoritarian rule.

The number of democracies increased by two in 2023, with Paraguay and Papua New Guinea being upgraded from "hybrid regimes" to "flawed democracies".

The top three places in the index are occupied by Norway, New Zealand and Iceland, while the final three countries are North Korea, Myanmar and Afghanistan.

with input from AFP.