Lebanon ceasefire turns Israel's focus to Gaza, Iran

When Israel accepted a ceasefire in Lebanon, which took effect Wednesday, it said the end of its year-long fight with Hezbollah would allow it to turn its attention back to Hamas in Gaza, as well as its arch-foe Iran.

But Israel has said it will not hesitate to strike Hezbollah again should the terms of the ceasefire be breached, and analysts say the deal is unlikely to pave the way for a similar truce in Gaza -- as some leaders and diplomats have hoped -- let alone a reduction in hostilities with Tehran.

Why a ceasefire in Lebanon but not Gaza?

Lebanon's Hezbollah, against which Israel launched an intense air and ground campaign after nearly a year of cross-border exchanges, had previously said a ceasefire would only come after Israel withdrew from Gaza.

But Amir Avivi, founder of the Israel Defense and Security Forum think tank, said Israel would want to secure its other objectives in the Palestinian territory before agreeing to a truce there.

"Ceasefire with Hamas in Gaza is only for one purpose: to release hostages," he told AFP, referring to the 97 people -- some of them already dead -- still held in Gaza after being kidnapped during the October 7, 2023 attack on southern Israel.

He added that in Lebanon, Israel had aimed to push Hezbollah out of the border area to make it safe for 60,000 displaced Israelis to return home, whereas in Gaza it seeks to annihilate Hamas entirely.

This means "basically conquering all the area and destroying Hamas", he said.

Because Hezbollah's capacities are stronger than Hamas's, Israel had no interest in expanding its ground operations to cover all of Lebanon, said Mairav Zonszein, an expert at the International Crisis Group.

"It was clear to the (Israeli) army from the minute that they escalated against Hezbollah that it wanted to limit the operation because the cost could be much higher than the utility," she said.

What will happen in Gaza?

While announcing the ceasefire with Hezbollah Tuesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said it would allow Israel to resupply, as well as refocus on Hamas and on the two groups' main backer, Iran.

Avivi told AFP that should the ceasefire hold, Israel would likely shift its units from Lebanon back to Gaza and relieve battle-weary reservists at a time when the country was starting to struggle to find soldiers.

"The (Israeli army) will be able to move more units back to Gaza, and definitely this might bring a change," he said, hoping it would push Hamas to release the hostages.

Defence Minister Israel Katz said Wednesday that the hostages' release was "the ultimate priority" and that the ceasefire would add pressure on the Palestinian militants.

Michael Horowitz, a geopolitical expert at the Middle East-based security consultancy Le Beck, said that for now Hamas "seems to remain impermeable to pressure".

He added that the beginning of a new US administration headed by Donald Trump, perceived as supporting a freer hand for Israel, may lead Netanyahu to seek to force Hamas into abandoning its conditions for a ceasefire. These have previously included a full Israeli withdrawal and allowing displaced residents to return home.

"A deal could then take time and the war could become a frozen conflict," Horowitz said.

 What does it mean for Iran?

The animosity between Israel and Iran reached new heights in 2024.

Iran launched two major missile barrages at Israel over the past year in retaliation for the deaths of leaders from Hamas and Hezbollah, as well as an Iranian general.

Israel responded both times with limited attacks on Iran, most recently bombing several military sites on October 26.

Netanyahu said Tuesday that the ceasefire in Lebanon would allow Israel to focus on Iran, which backs several regional proxies hostile to Israel, of which Hezbollah is the largest. The prime minister, however, did not give details as to how.

Horowitz told AFP the ceasefire could buy Iran time to de-escalate tensions and avoid having to respond in kind to the October 26 attack, leaving the door open for any future negotiations with the incoming Trump administration.

Zonszein, however, said Israel was likely to push its advantage by seeking to halt Iran's nuclear programme, hoping the United States would support it.

"Israel feels like it's in a position more than any other time to keep Iran weak and vulnerable, and to try and keep the pressure up further on its nuclear program," she said.

Iran is set to hold talks this week with three European countries who recently initiated a censure against it over its nuclear program at the UN's atomic watchdog.

Some Western powers fear Tehran might be seeking to develop a nuclear weapon, which it denies.

Avivi, for his part, said he hoped the United States would support Israel in Iran and "attack together".

"Israel needs to seize the moment and really get the American administration on board to deal with Iran," he said.