Success and scandals: Japan's liberal democratic party

Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is one of the democratic world's most successful parties, a one-size-fits-all electoral machine in power for all but four of the last 69 years.

But in snap parliamentary elections on Sunday, the LDP and its junior coalition partner fell short of a majority for the first time since 2009 at the hands of voters angry at a slush fund scandal, local media projected.

AFP looks at the history of the LDP, what it believes in, and the reasons for its decades of success:

  What were its beginnings?  

The LDP began in 1955 as a merger between two conservative parties and governed constantly until 1993, overseeing a huge expansion of the economy and living standards.

During the Cold War, the United States -- which still has 54,000 troops in Japan -- channeled millions of dollars to the party as a bulwark against communism.

During this time the smaller Japan Socialist Party served largely as a check on the government rather than aiming to win power itself.

In the process, the LDP attracted all kinds of special interests, including farming and business lobbies as well as religious groups -- resulting in multiple cases of corruption.

  What does the LDP believe in?  

Beneath the surface lurks fierce rivalry among factions, resulting in regular changes of leader -- 27 since 1955 -- which act as a substitute for changes in government.

All its leaders have been men, and fewer than 10 percent of its current MPs are women. In 2021 women were invited to attend key party meetings but they weren't allowed to speak.

The party has generally leaned toward big government spending, market-friendly economic policies, socially conservative values, and a robust alliance with the United States.

But it is a large tent, grouping big-government advocates, political doves focused on economic growth, and nationalists pushing traditional family values.

"Rather than basing their actions on a certain ideology, the party acts as voters tell it," Yu Uchiyama, a political scientist at the University of Tokyo, told AFP.

LDP factions "have the wisdom not to split (the party) even if they have differences", Uchiyama said.

  When did it lose power?  

In 1993, the LDP was kicked out of power for the first time, after the dramatic bursting of Japan's 1980s asset bubble and a corruption scandal.

But the fragile coalition government of small groups including several LDP defectors didn't even last a year and the party was back in power in 1994.

In 2009, the LDP again lost power in a landslide, replaced by a chaotic three years by the center-left Democratic Party of Japan.

The DPJ's policy failures and its clumsy response to the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster allowed the LDP under Shinzo Abe to return to power in late 2012.

  Why is the LDP popular? 

 The LDP remains associated with the post-war economic miracle, especially among older voters in rural areas, said Tomoaki Iwai of Nihon University.

Japan's electoral system also favors the well-funded and well-organized LDP with a national network of supporters and special interests.

"It's kind of a chicken-and-egg question; whether industry groups are with the LDP because they are in power, or whether the LDP was able to bring them in and that's why they have power," said Rintaro Nishimura at consultancy The Asia Group Japan.

The system has prevented smaller parties from staying in government for an extended period of time.

"But whether that's healthy democracy... Perhaps the time has come for Japan to fully examine itself," said Uchiyama of the University of Tokyo.

  What has happened now?  

The LDP has been back in power since 2012 in coalition with Komeito, a moderate party backed by Buddhist group Soka Gakkai.

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba won the leadership last month after voter discontent over inflation and a new scandal sank his predecessor Fumio Kishida.

Kishida, in power for three years, replaced Yoshihide Suga, who in turn succeeded Shinzo Abe, known for his nationalist views and "Abenomics".

Without a majority, Ishiba will have to head a minority government or find additional coalition partners, which is no easy feat.

But even if the LDP loses power -- unlikely given the divided opposition -- it will be back, Uchiyama said before the election.

"It is very hard to predict. But time and time again, voters punish the LDP and eventually return to the party," he said.