Hard-right Reform UK leapfrogs Tories for first time in poll

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on Friday played down a "seismic" poll suggesting that his Conservative party has fallen behind the hard-right anti-immigration Reform UK group for the first time.

But a senior Tory insisted that the YouGov survey was a "stark warning" that the main opposition Labour party was on track for a landslide win at next month's general election.

"The only poll that matters is the one on July 4," Sunak told British media in Italy, where he was attending the G7 leaders' meeting.

The new poll, conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, shows Brexiteer Nigel Farage's Reform with 19 percent support, compared to the Conservatives' 18 percent. Both are trailing far behind the centre-left Labour party.

"The fact that Nigel Farage's party are neck and neck with the governing Conservatives is a seismic shift in the voting landscape," YouGov said.

It cautioned, though, that the figures are "well within the margin of error of one another".

"We will not be able to tell for some time whether Reform can sustain or improve their position relative to the Conservatives," the pollsters added.

The survey indicated that Labour, led by Keir Starmer, still held a commanding lead at 37 percent, in line with other surveys that have put it some 20 points ahead for nearly two years.

That has made Starmer odds-on to become the next prime minister.

But he is still fighting to overcome persistent Conservative claims that his party will recklessly spend public finances and increase personal taxes -- a perennial jibe from right-wingers.

"The poll is a stark warning," said government minister Laura Trott.

"If a result like this is replicated on election day, Keir Starmer would have huge and unchecked power to tax your home, your job, your car, your pension however he wants."

She echoed Sunak who said the election campaign had only just passed the half-way stage and that a vote for Reform would be "handing Labour a blank cheque".

"The Conservative party are fighting for every single vote in this election," added Trott.

Farage -- who at the last general election in 2019 did a deal with the Conservatives to avoid splitting the right-wing vote -- claimed on Thursday that Reform now represents the main opposition party to Labour, not the Conservatives.

 Tory future? 

 How the opinion poll will play out if it is replicated on election day is unclear, with Britain's winner-takes-all first-past-the-post system favouring the bigger parties.

Some commentators have suggested the Conservatives, firmly on the back foot after a torrid 14 years in power marked by Brexit, Covid and a cost-of-living crisis, have tacitly conceded the election is unwinnable.

Senior Conservatives have taken to the airwaves in recent days to warn voters about handing Labour a "supermajority" in parliament for the next five years.

There are increasing questions, too, about what will happen to the Tories after the election, which would likely see Sunak stand down if Labour wins by a landslide.

Any Tory leadership contest would likely be an ideological fight between the centre-right and vocal right-wingers who have been increasingly critical of the party's immigration stance.

That has prompted talk of Farage, who on Friday reiterated his admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin as a "political operator" and described Adolf Hitler as "hypnotic in a very dangerous way", joining the Conservatives.

But the former member of the European Parliament, who is standing to be a British MP for the eighth time after seven failed attempts, has said instead that he wants to take over the party.

The Conservatives have gone through five prime ministers since 2016, including three in just four months in 2022.

Much of that was the result of Brexit.

But there were also other self-inflicted wounds, such as the chaos of Boris Johnson's time as leader and Liz Truss's short-lived tenure, when her unfunded tax cuts spooked the markets and crashed the pound.

Labour's Starmer, who is campaigning on promises to spur growth and restore economic "stability", is keen not to squander the party's huge poll lead, running a cautious campaign to end Tory "chaos".