Trump’s victory and US-Pakistan ties

Republican candidate Donald Trump has once again triumphed in the electoral race, securing his election as the 47th President of the United States. Donald Trump received 301 electoral votes while his opponent Kamala Harris managed to secure 226 electoral votes. A presidential candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win out of a total of 538. In the recent presidential elections in the United States, over 165 million voters exercised their right to vote, with nearly 70 million voters casting their ballots through early postal voting. Historically, only one individual has held the presidency for two non-consecutive terms: Grover Cleveland, affiliated with the Democratic Party, who managed to navigate numerous crises during his tenure. In his first election, he succeeded by defeating Republican candidate James Blaine.

Donald Trump has participated in presidential elections three times overall and has won twice. He is the only individual in American history to have defeated female candidates in both elections. Trump has run against a male Democratic candidate, Joe Biden, once and lost. In his victory speech, Trump proclaimed an end to wars globally, stating, “Today, we have made history; America will reach new heights and we will fix all the affairs of this country.” He announced that a golden era is about to begin in America, emphasizing that they will secure the borders and halt the influx of illegal immigrants. The inauguration ceremony for the new American President will take place in Washington on January 20, 2025.

While Donald Trump has declared an end to ongoing wars in the world, the pressing question remains whether he will be able to rein in Israel to ensure peace in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria. Israeli aggression has extended beyond Gaza and Lebanon to Iran. Over the past 13 months, more than 42,000 Muslims have been killed in Palestine and Palestinian children are being slaughtered mercilessly. Hospitals have turned into heaps of rubble and life has become exceptionally difficult for helpless women in Gaza due to Israeli atrocities. Will Donald Trump be able to end this war, considering the United States has been Israel’s largest supporter in this massacre?

During Trump’s first term in 2017, the US Administration openly supported Israel’s expansionist ambitions by recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and relocating the US embassy there. In 2019, it provided justification for the legality of Israeli settlements that occupied Palestinian territories. The same year, the US recognized Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights which Israel seized from Syria in 1967. Under the Century Deal, referred to as the “Death Deal,” a proposal was made to grant Israel maximum autonomy in Palestinian occupied territories. There are concerns that the US might now join forces with Israel to launch an attack on Iran. Trump’s previous term highlighted his foreign policy, particularly through the targeted killing of Iranian Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani which escalated tensions in the region. Therefore, Trump’s return to the presidency raises significant questions about his approach to the Middle East conflict and Israel’s ongoing actions.

The most important question for us is: what impact will Trump’s return to the White House have on Pakistan-US relations? What will be the nature of economic, political and defence relations between the US and Pakistan? During Trump’s first term, the US maintained its demand for Pakistan to “do more.” In January 2018, Trump cut off aid to Pakistan, stating that the US had given Pakistan $33 billion in aid over 15 years but had only been deceived in return. At that time, the US Administration maintained that the Haqqani Network was quite strong in Pakistan’s tribal areas and was involved in attacks on the US and allied forces in Afghanistan. Pakistan denied these allegations. It is worth noting that this was a time when the US and allied forces were facing fierce resistance in Afghanistan and pressure was mounting on the US Government to end the Afghan War.

By late 2018, the Trump Administration had begun to formulate its strategy for military withdrawal from Afghanistan. Appointing Zalmay Khalilzad as its special envoy to Afghanistan, the US commenced the Afghan peace process and recognized the need for Pakistan’s assistance to make it successful. Therefore, in December 2018, Trump wrote to the then Prime Minister of Pakistan, Imran Khan, requesting help for the Afghan peace process. Zalmay Khalilzad also openly acknowledged Pakistan’s assistance in negotiations with the Taliban multiple times. In July 2019, Imran Khan met with President Trump at the White House. Subsequently, meetings between the two leaders occurred during the United Nations General Assembly and the World Economic Forum.

During this period, the Trump Administration provided Pakistan with $80 million in aid to combat the corona virus; however, after the US military withdrawal from Afghanistan, Pakistan’s military and civilian aid continued to decline. By 2023, this aid had dropped to merely $170 million. Meanwhile, the US gave India a free pass to seize Kashmir under the guise of mediation on the matter. It is evident that regardless of which party is in power in the US, or who occupies the presidency, Washington’s attention will always be focused on what can be done to reduce China’s growing influence in the region and strengthen India in South Asia, as well as how further pressure can be exerted on Pakistan by demanding “do more.” The US has always prioritized India over Pakistan and increased its influence in Afghanistan, as evidenced by Trump’s indication, immediately after winning the election, of his willingness to visit India in 2025 during a phone conversation with Narendra Modi.

This time, however, it appears that Trump’s policies may not be confrontational towards China, as China is currently a major ally of Russia. On the other hand, there is little scope for improvement in US-Iran relations. In this context, it would be foolish to think that the US government would show any leniency towards the Pakistan-Iran gas pipeline. A segment of society in Pakistan believes that Donald Trump becoming president may lead to some political change in Pakistan or benefit a particular individual or political party. But if the ground realities are taken into account, the chances of this happening are very low. Keeping in view the current global scenario, it is inevitable for Pakistan to re-evaluate its foreign policy. According to Donald Trump, what is the importance of Pakistan-US relations? The situation will become clear in the next few weeks.